Festive season may give further push to IIP; will it sustain?

Industrial manufacturing knowledge has swung again within the inexperienced for the month of September after witnessing a de-growth previously six consecutive months. Few elements of the index have proven progress, whereas for others the contraction has diminished. Overall, the figures highlighted that the demand is choosing up amid the continued festive season.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a meagre 0.20 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in September 2020, beating ICRA’s estimate of a gentle 1 per cent contraction. On the opposite hand, retail inflation additionally inched up to 7.61 per cent in October due to rising meals costs. This elevated inflation, which is nicely above the RBI’s consolation zone, is a reason behind concern.

As per the information, the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) additionally superior to 11.07 per cent in October, up from 10.68 per cent within the earlier month of September.

The enchancment in IIP was broad-based as three out of the six segments, together with shopper non-durables and durables, infrastructure, and development items, have been in a position to show progress in September 2020. However, some market specialists imagine that base results did contribute to the development within the efficiency of some sectors, comparable to shopper durables. There are hopes that the continued festive season may push IIP to mid-to-high single-digit progress in October 2020.

Here is what the analysts had to say:

Aditi Nayar, Principal Economist, ICRA on IIP data
A beneficial base impact and stock build-up prior to the festive season contributed to the expansion in shopper durables. Consumer non-durables too reverted to gentle progress in September 2020, which is enthusing, after the loss in momentum seen within the earlier two months. The enchancment in main items in September 2020 benefitted from the coal and electrical energy sectors.

The sharp narrowing within the contraction of capital items is likely one of the greatest positives within the disaggregated knowledge, and its sustainability within the coming months will be keenly watched to gauge the restoration in funding sentiment and exercise.

We count on the festive season push to end in a mid to excessive single-digit IIP progress in October 2020, though its sustenance after the festive interval is over, stays unsure.

Nish Bhatt, Founder & CEO, Millwood Kane International
With further unlocking measures, reforms, and stimulus equal to 15 per cent of GDP by the federal government, the general financial progress is anticipated to enhance within the months to come.

This is for 7 months that the inflation print is above the RBI mandated stage of 6 per cent. The provide disruption created due to Covid-19 and unseasonal rain in some pockets of the nation has led to an increase in inflation. The elevated stage of inflation is a reason behind fear and will influence RBI’s skill to act on rates of interest.

Suman Chowdhury, Chief Analytical Officer, Acuité Ratings & Research
The costs of key greens together with onions proceed to be excessive as mirrored in a really excessive YoY inflation. Clearly, this means that provide and logistical challenges proceed to stay excessive. We imagine that the probability of a cloth decline in CPI is low within the close to time period except important steps are taken to tackle such supply-side challenges. With WPI additionally displaying the next trajectory within the final month, there may be additionally the chance of an increase in core inflation going ahead. The administration of bond yields can show to be critically difficult in such an inflationary and hard fiscal atmosphere.

Even as the expansion backdrop stays bleak, above-target inflation is lowering room for the RBI to administer further charge cuts within the close to time period.

Joseph Thomas, Head of Research – Emkay Wealth Management
Food costs don’t appear to be moderating opposite to earlier expectations. From simply fruit and veggies the worth surge has moved to all the main meals elements as nicely. This may have an effect on the trajectory of rates of interest, and RBI may have to proceed to concentrate on liquidity provision reasonably than charge motion. It can be a indisputable fact that the economic system goes by way of unprecedented financial developments and subsequently, one may count on a comparatively larger worth stage. But persistently excessive inflation may invite motion from the RBI by means of even lowering the free liquidity. The IIP is sort of flat at 0.20%, from a deeply unfavorable quantity for the interval earlier than that there’s some financial restoration taking place at current, however the worth stage too is rising. To maintain the early positive factors in restoration management of the worth stage is crucial.

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