There are two methods to fudge the precise variety of Covid circumstances. The first, extra apparent means is to scale back the variety of assessments being performed, as Donald Trump repeatedly prompt. The second, much less apparent and extra insidious means is to extend the variety of Antigen assessments and cut back the variety of PCR assessments.
As everyone knows, Antigen assessments don’t detect the Covid virus in addition to PCR assessments. In reality, the separate information, revealed by just a few states, on PCR vs Antigen take a look at outcomes, exhibits that PCR assessments have a positivity fee that’s 2.5 to three.5 instances greater than Antigen assessments (for instance, in Delhi the positivity fee for PCR assessments is 14% whereas the positivity fee for Antigen assessments is 4%).
From 100% PCR assessments on the very begin of the pandemic, India is now right down to lower than 60% PCR assessments – whereas Antigen assessments have risen sharply from a negligible quantity to now virtually 5.5 crores, which accounts for over 40% of whole assessments. And, each week, there’s a steady rising development of Antigen testing.
1. SIGNS OF POOR TESTING
This desk clearly exhibits the nice, the dangerous and the ugly states. Bihar, Telangana, Gujarat, Delhi and UP are India’s 5 worst states with lower than 50% PCR assessments. Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan are glorious with 100% PCR assessments.
2. UNDER-REPORTING OF COVID CASES
States with a excessive degree of Antigen testing are prone to miss numerous constructive circumstances. Once once more, Bihar – particularly through the run as much as elections – was the worst state in India in under-reporting Covid circumstances. The true variety of Covid circumstances in Bihar was an outrageous 132% of the formally reported circumstances. Telangana and Gujarat have additionally grossly under-reported the Covid pandemic of their states.
3. MASSIVE NUMBER OF COVID CASES NOT REPORTED
But what do these percentages imply in precise numbers?
India has not reported 3.4 million Covid circumstances due to the deliberate enhance in using the unreliable Antigen assessments.
The official variety of Covid circumstances in any state relies upon after all on the inhabitants of every state, how badly Covid has unfold within the State, all tempered by the extent of Antigen testing in that state.
Maharashtra and Delhi have the very best precise numbers of lacking Covid circumstances – collectively lacking over 10 lakh Covid circumstances.
Once once more Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan are the 2 most accountable and trustworthy reporting states, together with Punjab – precisely measuring and reporting on the variety of Covid circumstances of their states.
4. STATES RANKED BY GENUINE TESTING LEVELS
The true rating of any state in how effectively it’s testing its inhabitants is the variety of PCR assessments being performed.
Tamil Nadu stands out far above the remainder of India – it’s the solely state to have performed over 1 crore PCR assessments, additionally reflecting the very best variety of assessments per head of inhabitants with practically 1,400 assessments per ten thousand of its residents. Karnataka is the second-best state with over 13,00 PCR assessments per ten thousand residents.
Bihar, Telangana and Gujarat are the worst within the numbers of PCR assessments per head of their inhabitants.
Overall, India is just not utilizing PCR assessments sufficient – solely 550 of each 10,000 residents of India are being examined utilizing PCR.
5. STATES UNDERESTIMATING THEIR TRUE POSITIVITY RATE
The official figures on India’s positivity fee are deceptive. The true positivity fee is far greater. Once once more, the PCR assessments reveal the reality.
For the nation as an entire, the true positivity fee is almost 140% of the formally declared fee (for instance, simply to be clear, the official positivity fee for all-India is 6.9%, whereas the true positivity fee is 9.6% i.e. 9.6% is 139% of 6.9%).