India’s business activity hits another post-lockdown high but pandemic revival a key risk: Nomura

Business activity in India rose to another post-lockdown high over the previous week after plateauing the week earlier, but the revival of the pandemic menace posed a key danger publish festive season, in response to brokerage agency Nomura.

The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) touched 87.1 for the week ended November 22, in opposition to 84.4 of the earlier week, which was revised downward from 85.3, the agency mentioned in a observe on Monday.

The leap within the weekly tracker of indicators of business activity was mobility-driven, led by a sharp rise within the Apple driving index, the observe mentioned.

Google’s retail and recreation mobility continued to rise as properly, Nomura mentioned, reflecting the festive season impact of extra holidays and procuring. On the opposite hand, office mobility fell by 13 foundation factors over the week, it mentioned.

In a worrying development, the agency famous that India’s labour participation fee dropped additional to 39.3% from already depressed ranges of 39.5% within the week earlier than. Power demand additionally recorded a marginal drop of 0.1% week-on-week after clocking 5.6% development within the earlier week, it added.

“A key short-term risk is the revival of the pandemic threat as we transition out of the festive season,” mentioned Nomura economists Sonal Verma and Aurodeep Nandi, within the observe.

The sharp rebound so far may hit a pace bump within the subsequent two-three months as localised lockdowns put a spanner within the tempo of sequential development, Nomura mentioned.

Cities in Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh have reinstated lockdown restrictions to various levels with others considering the transfer as instances of Covid have began spiking once more.

On November 11, Delhi recorded its highest variety of day by day contemporary instances at 8,593, which got here down to six,746 instances as of Monday.

“However, the early deployment of a COVID-19 vaccine would likely prove to be a tailwind in H2 2021,” the observe mentioned.

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