1,000 Ukrainian Troops Crossed 30 Km Into Russian Territory – What Comes Next?

Ukrainian land troops and mechanized forces crossed the national border, progressing more than 30 kilometres into Russian territory in one of the most noteworthy developments in the ongoing conflict between the two nations. The Ukrainian troops, estimated to exceed 1,000, departed from the Sumy Oblast region of north-east Ukraine and have seized control of Kursk Oblast in Russia.

Ukraine’s infiltration caught Russia by surprise, prompting them to hastily mobilize troops to halt the advancement. Kyiv carried out intense artillery and drone attacks alongside the movement of mechanized troops into enemy territory.

The Institute for Study of War (ISW), a non-profit organization, geolocated the positions of Ukrainian troops using publicly available videos and images of the operation and highlighted the areas where Ukrainian forces have made progress. The blue region signifies the areas where Ukrainians have entered.

Russia has mobilized its troops to prevent further Ukrainian incursions. The purpose of the Ukrainian operation is uncertain, but since the war began in February 2022, Kyiv’s actions seem to pose the greatest challenge to Putin’s Russia.

Ukraine has been relatively quiet regarding the offensive. In the meantime, Russia has declared a “federal emergency” and has mobilized troops to safeguard the area.

Geolocating Ukrainian Progress

ISW stated that the rapid advance of Ukrainian mechanized troops, including tanks, infantry, and armored vehicles, around 35 km into Russia was swift, but it appears that Ukrainians do not have complete control of that area.

Russian conscripts, FSB border guards, and elements of Chechen “Akhmat” units, a motorized unit operating in the Chechen Republic and fighting for Russia, are present in the Kursk region and have constructed field fortifications along the border. These fortifications were breached by the Ukrainian troops. According to information accessed by ISW, as of August 8, Ukrainian troops are situated in Sverdlikovo, Sudhza, Malaya, and Lyubimovka.

Vladimir Putin has labeled the incursion a “large-scale provocation” by Kyiv, and Russia’s top general has pledged to crush it. Meanwhile, a Chechen Akhmat unit official mentioned, “The situation is not irreversible. Nothing extraordinary occurred, yes, our people perished, that’s a fact. The enemy has entered several settlements,” stated General Apti Alaudinov, a close associate of Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov and leader of Akhmat special forces.

Russian military bloggers allege that Ukrainian troops are advancing in small groups from Russia’s rear, bypassing their fortifications before engaging Russian forces and then withdrawing from the confrontations without attempting to consolidate control over their furthest advances.

The new front in Russia is distant from other areas where intense fighting has occurred since the war began. Substantial combat took place in eastern Ukraine, a significant portion of which is purported to be under Russian control. In the east, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Horlivka were under Russian control before the conflict commenced two years ago. Russian forces have progressed further west from these regions and control a frontline that extends from northeast to south of Ukraine.

According to ISW’s map, the red line indicates Russian progress in Ukraine, and the black dotted lines represent Russian control of Ukrainian territory before the conflict began.

Ukrainian drones targeted residential buildings in the border regions of Kursk, Voronezh, and Belgorod. Ukrainian combatants have briefly infiltrated Russia multiple times since the conflict began in February 2022.

Russia Mobilizes Troops

Russian military experts have criticized officials for failing to detect the incursions initially. The Ukrainian offensive has entered its third day. Russia initially dispatched air and artillery units to repulse the attacks but was unsuccessful in halting the advance.

Russia’s defense ministry announced that it is deploying convoys of military equipment, including rocket launchers, artillery, tanks, and heavy trucks, to bolster its defenses in the region.

Russia conducted artillery strikes on a supermarket in eastern Ukraine’s Kostyantynivka. This attack was in response to the Ukrainian advance. The shelling resulted in ten deaths and 35 injuries. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has promised to retaliate for the attack.

“Russia will be held responsible for this terrorism, and we will strive to ensure that the world continues to support Ukraine in defending ourselves and saving our people’s lives,” Zelensky stated on X.

Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region. Russian terrorists hit an ordinary supermarket and a post office. There are people under the rubble. A rescue operation is underway, and everything will be done to save them.

At the moment, it’s known that four people have been killed. My… pic.twitter.com/Sd9vrGTHTc

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 9, 2024

Kostyantynivka has experienced previous attacks, and Russian shelling is a common occurrence.

Incursion To Gain Advantage?

Kharkiv in Ukraine has been a significant hotspot between the troops and has seen fierce battles in the past. In May, Russia initiated a new offensive in the region, capturing substantial territory in Kharkiv. The attacks involved Russia dropping 1,000 kg guided bombs on a hardware store, resulting in 16 deaths.

Last year, Ukrainian forces launched a major counteroffensive to retake Kharkiv, nearly reaching the Russian border. Kharkiv has been partially occupied by Russia since the conflict began on February 24, 2022.

The Russian-controlled territory is in close proximity to the international border and is several kilometers north of Kharkiv city, Ukraine’s second-largest city. Ukraine’s ongoing incursion in Kursk could be a strategic move to gain leverage on the negotiating table for a ceasefire by compelling the enemy to redeploy troops from other regions to reinforce the frontline. The Ukrainian objectives remain ambiguous.

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby mentioned that Washington is “reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to gain a better understanding”. He added that “Nothing has changed regarding our policy” and Ukraine can utilize US-supplied weapons solely “to target imminent threats just across the border”.

US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller commented on the Kremlin: “It is somewhat hypocritical of them to label it a provocation, considering Russia violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”