Plunging demand for COVID-19 tests may leave US exposed


Just 5 weeks in the past, Los Angeles County was conducting greater than 350,000 weekly coronavirus tests, together with at a large drive-thru web site at Dodger Stadium, as well being employees raced to comprise the worst COVID-19 hotspot within the U.S.

Now, county officers say testing has practically collapsed. More than 180 government-supported websites are working at solely a 3rd of their capability.

After a 12 months of struggling to spice up testing, communities throughout the nation are seeing plummeting demand, shuttering testing websites and even making an attempt to return provides.
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“It’s shocking how quickly we’ve gone from moving at 100 miles an hour to about 25,” mentioned Dr. Clemens Hong, who leads the county’s testing operation.

After a 12 months of struggling to spice up testing, communities throughout the nation are seeing plummeting demand, shuttering testing websites and even making an attempt to return provides.

The drop in screening comes at a big second within the outbreak: Experts are cautiously optimistic that COVID-19 is receding after killing greater than 500,000 folks within the U.S. however involved that rising variants might lengthen the epidemic.

“Everyone is hopeful for rapid, widespread vaccinations, but I don’t think we’re at a point where we can drop our guard just yet,” mentioned Hong. “We just don’t have enough people who are immune to rule out another surge.”

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U.S. testing hit a peak on Jan. 15, when the nation was averaging greater than 2 million tests per day. Since then, the typical variety of each day tests has fallen greater than 28%. The drop mirrors declines throughout all main virus measures since January, together with new circumstances, hospitalizations and deaths.

Officials say these encouraging traits, along with harsh winter climate, the top of the vacation journey season, pandemic fatigue and a rising concentrate on vaccinations are sapping curiosity in testing.

“When you combine all those together you see this decrease,” mentioned Dr. Richard Pescatore of the well being division in Delaware, the place each day testing has fallen greater than 40% because the January peak. “People just aren’t going to go out to testing sites.”

But testing stays vital for monitoring and containing the outbreak.

L.A. County is opening extra testing choices close to public transportation, faculties and workplaces to make it extra handy. And officers in Santa Clara County are urging residents to “continue getting tested regularly,” highlighting new cellular testing buses and pop-up websites.

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President Joe Biden has promised to revamp the nation’s testing system by investing billions extra in provides and authorities coordination. But with demand falling quick, the nation may quickly have a glut of unused provides. The U.S. will be capable of conduct practically 1 billion month-to-month tests by June, in keeping with projections from researchers at Arizona State University. That’s greater than 25 occasions the nation’s present charge of about 40 million tests reported monthly.

With greater than 150 million new vaccine doses due for supply by late March, testing is prone to fall additional as native governments shift employees and assets to giving pictures.

“You have to pick your battles here,” mentioned Dr. Jeffrey Engel of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. “Everyone would agree that if you have one public health nurse, you’re going to use that person for vaccination, not testing.”

Some specialists say the nation should double down on testing to keep away from flare-ups from coronavirus variants which have taken maintain within the U.Okay., South Africa and different locations.

“We need to use testing to continue the downward trend,” mentioned Dr. Jonathan Quick of the Rockefeller Foundation, which has been advising Biden officers. “We need to have it there to catch surges from the variants.”

Last week, Minnesota started urging households to get examined each two weeks by the top of the college 12 months as extra college students return to the classroom.

“To protect this progress, we need to use all the tools at our disposal,” mentioned Dan Huff, an assistant state well being commissioner.

But among the most vocal testing proponents are much less nervous in regards to the declines in screening. From a public well being viewpoint, testing is efficient if it helps to rapidly discover the contaminated, hint their contacts and isolate them to cease the unfold. In most elements of the U.S., that by no means occurred.

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Over the vacation season, many Americans nonetheless needed to wait days to obtain take a look at outcomes, rendering them largely ineffective. That’s led to testing fatigue and dwindling curiosity, mentioned Dr. Michael Mina of Harvard University.

“It doesn’t exactly give you a lot of gratifying, immediate feedback,” Mina mentioned. “So people’s willingness or interest in getting tested starts to go down.”

Still, U.S. take a look at producers proceed ramping up manufacturing, with one other 110 million speedy and home-based tests anticipated to hit the market subsequent month.

Government officers lengthy assumed this rising arsenal of low cost, 15-minute tests could be used to repeatedly display tens of millions of scholars and academics as in-person courses resume. But latest pointers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention do not emphasize testing, describing it as an “additional layer” of safety, behind primary measures like masking and social distancing.

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Even with out sturdy federal backing, academic leaders say testing packages might be vital for marshaling public confidence wanted to totally reopen faculties, together with within the fall when circumstances are anticipated to rise once more.

“Schools have asked themselves, justifiably, ‘Is the juice worth the squeeze to set up a big testing effort?’” mentioned Mike Magee, CEO of Chiefs for Change, a nonprofit that advises districts in additional than 25 states. “Our message to the school systems we work with is: ‘Yes, you need to stand up comprehensive testing because you’re going to need it.’”



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