For FY22, Economic Survey and RBI projected India’s GDP growth rate at 11 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively. However, the achievement of this progress fee largely depends upon how properly the economic system recovers from the Covid-19 shock. Though there hasn’t been a nationwide lockdown but, many states have opted for localized lockdowns or related restrictions to management the unfold of the virus.
With financial actions and livelihoods being hit once more, the query is, how will the central financial institution reply? Last 12 months, RBI got here up with numerous measures to tide over the financial affect of Covid-19. However, at the moment, it has solely restricted area to announce any large financial stimulus packages, ought to such a requirement come up.
In its restricted area, the RBI Governor on Wednesday introduced a slew of measures that might convey some reduction to the debtors and companies. To help lending, the Governor introduced Special Long-Term Operations (SLTRO) for small finance banks and categorised lending to MFIs as precedence sector lending. Term liquidity facility of Rs 50,000 has been introduced to increase liquidity within the healthcare infrastructure and companies within the nation.
Under this scheme, banks are eligible to park surplus liquidity up to the dimensions of the Covid mortgage ebook with RBI, thus gaining 40 bps greater than the reverse repo fee. It may incentivise banks to step up lending. Though no mortgage moratorium was introduced, the restructuring scheme may convey some reduction to the debtors.
For RBI, the financial surroundings it has to cope with now could be completely different from that within the final 12 months. The inflationary stress within the home economic system may stop it from asserting any additional fee cuts. The inflation fee as measured by the buyer worth index (CPI) is at a excessive degree, although it’s inside the higher vary of 6 per cent. Localised lockdowns can lead to supply-side disruption, main to spike in costs.
The RBI Governor additionally cautioned that the inflation trajectory for the remainder of the 12 months can be formed by Covid-19 infections. If the inflation fee climbs up and continues above the goal vary, RBI would have to prioritise between progress and inflation.
The developments within the world economic system are additionally not beneficial for RBI. Last 12 months, a lot of the economies had been coping with an unprecedented disaster. Central banks throughout the globe got here up with free financial coverage measures, together with quantitative easing in some superior economies.
However, issues are enhancing slowly within the superior economies, particularly within the US. In the US, the unemployment fee fell to 6 per cent in March, and inflation fee breached the goal degree of two per cent. These indicators level to the truth that the US economic system is rebounding from the disaster. In such a state of affairs, there may be uncertainty in regards to the course of the financial coverage stance of the US Federal Reserve. Though the Fed signalled that it might proceed with the present stance until 2024, the query is whether or not the US central financial institution can be ready to do so.
For occasion, if the inflation fee within the US continues to stay above the consolation degree, Fed can be pressured to act. In such a state of affairs, there can be repercussions on the rising economies, together with India. There can be a reverse circulation of funds to the US, negatively impacting the rising economies.
Currently, there may be promoting stress by FIIs within the Indian market, primarily due to a spike in Covid-19 instances and uncertainty surrounding the financial outlook. This pattern has put stress even on the rupee. The scenario might be much worse if there may be change within the financial coverage stance within the US.
India’s foreign exchange reserves have reached an all-time excessive of $584 billion. It provides ample area for RBI to intervene out there, if the rupee falls to uncomfortable degree.
RBI would wait and watch, and act cautiously earlier than intervening within the foreign money market. When wanted, it shouldn’t be in need of ammunition to cope with one other episode of the taper tantrum. RBI has received lots on its plate this 12 months, viz, aiding financial restoration, controlling inflation fee, supporting authorities borrowing and approaching the developments within the US cautiously. Yet, the Governor assured that the central financial institution will go unconventional methods and devise new responses as and when the scenario calls for.