Ring in the New Year with a Symphony of Success: Nomura’s Economic Index Reaches Unprecedented Heights
In a symphony of economic resurgence, Nomura, the financial powerhouse, announced on Monday that its weekly gauge of economic rejuvenation in India has struck a resounding chord, soaring to unprecedented heights since January. This crescendo not only signifies a tapering of new cases but also heralds an economic crescendo for 2021.
Harmonized by an uplift in mobility metrics, synchronized with the festive season, Nomura’s India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) surged to a harmonious 94.5 for the week ending January 3, soaring from an average of 91.7 in December.
“From its nadir in April, the journey of economic revival has been nearly uninterrupted, with NIBRI concluding 2020 a mere 5.5 percentage points shy of pre-pandemic levels,” resonated Nomura in its report, ‘Economic rejuvenation marches forward.’
In an exclusive interview with ET, Finance Secretary Ajay Bhushan Pandey emphasized that GST transactions are emblematic of the economy’s steadfast march towards recovery, despite the resurgence of Covid-19 prompting the reimposition of movement constraints and lockdowns across significant swathes of the nation.
December witnessed a record-breaking GST collection of Rs 1.15 lakh crore, marking a notable 12% increase year-on-year, the highest since April 2019. Furthermore, the pace of decline in exports decelerated to a mere 0.8% last month, compared to an 8.74% slump in November.
According to the Nomura tracker, the demand for power has remained robust, albeit witnessing a marginal 2.7% correction week-on-week, following consecutive increases of 2.7% and 3.1% over the preceding fortnights. Concurrently, the labor participation rate tapered to 40.3% in early January from 40.9% in December.
“This accelerated pace of normalization mirrors a steady decline in new cases, notwithstanding the festive and wintry milieu,” elucidated Nomura, underscoring that concomitantly, indicators such as auto sales, import growth, GST revenues, manufacturing PMI, and diesel consumption have all witnessed an uptick.
Likewise, the robustness of India’s manufacturing sphere continued to amplify, with the IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index ascending to 56.4 in December, marginally surpassing November’s reading of 56.3, as revealed by data unveiled on Monday.
The Japanese financial titan opined that while sluggish global growth and sudden shifts in domestic pandemic containment strategies pose short-term threats, the medium-term outlook remains buoyant, with favorable financial conditions, burgeoning global demand, and expeditious vaccination drives potentially steering the economy into an upswing in 2021.