Navigating Brexit: From Tier 4 Catastrophe to Tier 3 Discontent

The agreement brokered by Johnson averted what could have been a disastrous economic standstill for Britain.

The dramatic climax of Donald Trump’s involvement in the Capitol siege on Wednesday served as a fitting conclusion to the relationship between the US president and Boris Johnson. Reflect on this: prior to the decisive defeat of the president by Joe Biden, our prime minister, known for his adeptness at delaying and evading decisions, was banking on a Trump victory and the prospect of a groundbreaking UK-US trade agreement, possibly intertwined with a no-deal Brexit.

Proponents of Johnson argue that his strategy of pushing the EU negotiations to the eleventh hour was a stroke of genius. However, it’s probable that a resolution was only reached once the US option faded away. Nevertheless, the resulting agreement is undeniably lacking, as Sir Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour Party, pointed out: it neglects the 80% of our economy attributed to services and introduces substantial increases in bureaucratic red tape for various businesses, from manufacturers to haulage companies and wine merchants, not to mention the general populace. The ramifications are particularly harsh for the younger generation, who largely oppose Brexit.

Before proceeding further, I extend New Year greetings to all readers, including staunch Brexit supporters. Life must continue despite challenges, hence the imposition of lockdowns by not only our government but also administrations worldwide. Yet, our nation seems to excel in both economic downturns and citizen suffering.

In this narrative, the prevailing sentiment appears to be “lock down due to NHS strain.” It’s difficult not to conclude that our subpar performance compared to, say, Germany, is linked to a decade of austerity. The healthcare system was ill-prepared for the onslaught of Covid-19; the government should have recognized years ago the seasonal pressures on hospital capacity and the folly of not maintaining adequate spare capacity.

Turning back to Brexit, far from being a closed chapter, it’s merely the beginning of chaos and disillusionment across the nation, particularly affecting the “red wall” voters whom Starmer seems fixated on. Leading the Labour opposition is undeniably one of the most challenging roles in politics, yet I believe he dedicates too much attention to the minority of Labour Brexit supporters. He should proudly champion his Remain stance and consistently challenge the Brexit proponents in the cabinet. I eagerly anticipate the day when most of this generation of so-called Conservative politicians are ousted by an electorate awakened to the consequences of their actions.

Johnson recently claimed that Brexit wasn’t a “break” from our European allies (curiously, we remain geographically in Europe). This assertion, coming from a man of privileged education, is at odds with reality. Brexit signifies a significant break from continental Europe, a fact not lost on our allies. Thus, despite testing their patience, President Macron characterized the treatment of the British as “lies and false promises,” Michel Barnier remarked that “a divorce is nothing to celebrate,” and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hinted at a future reconciliation.

The extreme right-wing Eurosceptics, dubbed “bastards” by Sir John Major, who have hijacked what was once the genuine Conservative and Unionist party, pretend to follow in the footsteps of Margaret Thatcher, often citing her famous Bruges speech of 1988. However, they conveniently omit her endorsement of the single market, a project she and Lord Cockfield played pivotal roles in establishing.

Thatcher emphasized that the driving force behind the single market was “the aim of a Europe open to enterprise.” She believed that by eliminating barriers and enabling companies to operate on a European scale, Europe could effectively compete with the US, Japan, and other emerging economic powers. Her enthusiasm for the project is evident in her papers housed in the Churchill archives at Cambridge.

And yet, members of the Brexit cabinet, lacking comprehension, required a lesson on the single market from our former EU ambassador, Sir Ivan Rogers, following the referendum. They were oblivious to the disparity between the customs union, with its tariff-free intra-EU trade, and the single market, which progressively removed non-tariff barriers.

So, how substantial is this “deal”? Brendan Donnelly, a respected authority on European affairs, likened it to the Cheshire cat: as you scrutinize it, the specifics vanish, leaving only a grin. While avoiding a no-deal scenario is cause for gratitude, exiting the single market reintroduces non-tariff barriers, impeding frictionless trade.

Johnson’s “deal” transitions us from Brexit tier 4 to tier 3. It averts a catastrophe but remains a calamity.