Why Vladimir Putin’s Prospects in This Conflict Are Diminishing

While the possibility remains that the Russians could gain control over Ukraine, recent events have demonstrated the unwavering determination of Ukrainians not to yield.

In less than a week since the commencement of hostilities, it increasingly appears that Vladimir Putin is on a trajectory toward a significant setback. Despite potential victories in individual battles, the overarching outcome seems bleak for Putin. His aspirations to resurrect the Russian empire are founded on the fallacy that Ukraine lacks legitimacy as a nation and its people do not exist as a distinct entity. This falsehood, perpetuated by Putin himself, has become deeply ingrained in his psyche.

Putin’s strategy for invading Ukraine was built on several known factors: Russia’s military superiority over Ukraine, NATO’s reluctance to intervene militarily, and European hesitancy to impose severe sanctions due to reliance on Russian energy resources. His plan involved swift and forceful action to destabilize Ukraine’s government, install a puppet regime in Kyiv, and withstand Western sanctions.

However, a critical unknown variable in Putin’s calculus was whether the Ukrainian populace would passively accept a Moscow-controlled regime. Putin wagered that they would, buoyed by the belief in Ukraine’s artificiality as a nation. He cited the relatively smooth annexation of Crimea in 2014 as evidence. Yet, with each passing day, it becomes increasingly evident that Putin’s gamble is faltering. Ukrainians are vehemently resisting, garnering international support and turning the tide of the conflict.

The destruction of Russian tanks and casualties among Russian forces only emboldens Ukrainian resolve while fueling animosity toward the invaders. Although hatred is a potent and unsightly emotion, for oppressed peoples, it can serve as a wellspring of resistance. Putin’s pursuit of a bloodless victory to revive the Russian empire is misguided; by perpetuating violence, he ensures that his dream will remain unattainable.

Ultimately, nations are built on narratives. The tales of Ukrainian defiance not only inspire their compatriots but resonate globally, galvanizing governments and citizens alike to stand against tyranny and aggression. This conflict is not merely a regional struggle; its outcome will reverberate worldwide. Remaining passive observers is no longer tenable; it is incumbent upon all to take a stand.

Regrettably, the conflict is likely to endure, assuming various guises over time. Yet, the fundamental truth has already been established: Ukraine is a legitimate nation inhabited by a real people who adamantly reject subjugation under a new Russian empire. The lingering question is how long it will take for this reality to permeate the Kremlin’s fortress mentality.