The Intriguing Tale Behind Trump’s Mideast Accord
From mediator to matchmaker: Kushner’s unexpected role shift.
In my four-decade tenure covering Arab-Israel relations, the recent normalization pacts between Israel and both the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain unfolded in an extraordinary, yet illuminating manner.
Allow me to paint an analogy akin to a soap opera: Picture Jared Kushner as a legal counsel initially tasked with facilitating a separation between two entities, “Mrs. Israel” and “Mr. Palestine.” However, Kushner soon realizes that the incompatibility between the two is so profound that even the notion of separation is inconceivable.
Amidst this endeavor, Kushner uncovers a fascinating twist: “Mrs. Israel” is romantically involved with “Mr. Emirates,” seeking refuge from a tumultuous liaison with “Ms. Iran.”
Abandoning the pursuit of a divorce between “Mr. Palestine” and “Mrs. Israel,” Kushner seizes upon the shared interests of “Mrs. Israel” and “Mr. Emirates,” along with President Trump’s vested interest in officiating the union, all amidst a presidential campaign backdrop.
Now, cue the commercial break.
The fact that these normalization agreements emerged from the setbacks in Trump’s Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy, paradoxically elevates their significance.
My observation? In the Middle East, monumental shifts often stem from actions driven by misplaced motives.
The essence lies in the desire for economic prosperity, security cooperation against common threats like Iran, and the tacit endorsement from Saudi Arabia, exemplified by allowing Israel’s El Al airlines to traverse Saudi airspace en route to Bahrain and the U.A.E.
Such occurrences are rare. Anything steering the Middle East towards a European Union-esque cohesion rather than the chaos of the Syrian conflict is a welcome development. Reports from Dubai suggest a light-hearted adoption of “Shalom alaikum” as a playful greeting, blending Hebrew and Arabic.
Let there be no illusions: While I fervently hope for Trump’s defeat come November, if his administration, alongside Kushner, catalyzed this accord in their twilight, credit is due. Despite their myriad shortcomings, this achievement stands apart.
The outcome remains uncertain, but the convergence of the most technologically advanced Arab state, the U.A.E., with Israel, signals potential for newfound synergies and partnerships, beneficial for Arab-Israeli and Jewish-Muslim relations alike.
Should this endeavor prove successful, it presents an alternative to Iran’s entrenched resistance model, responsible for breeding failed states across the region.
Why now, one might wonder?
Primarily, with the U.S. scaling back its military presence in the Middle East, a geopolitical void beckons the formation of new alliances. The landscape comprises various axes: the Iran-Hezbollah alliance, the Turkish-Qatari partnership, and counterbalancing them, the emerging Israel-U.A.E.-Bahrain-Saudi bloc, alongside moderate Sunni factions in Iraq, Egypt, and Jordan.
Secondly, the post-Arab Spring era, coupled with dwindling oil revenues and burgeoning youth populations, compels moderate Sunni states to rethink their legitimacy strategy. The focus shifts towards providing youth with the tools for prosperity, necessitating global connectivity and educational empowerment, albeit within confines of religious and political orthodoxy.
Strategically, the U.A.E. seized a fleeting opportunity, leveraging its rapport with the Trump administration amidst a pivotal election season. The promise of F-35 jets and hedging against potential strain under a Biden presidency drove their diplomatic maneuvering.
Yet, amidst this geopolitical ballet, Kushner’s peace initiative inadvertently spotlighted Israel’s steadfast rejection of a two-state solution. Despite crafting a plan tailored to Netanyahu’s preferences, the Israeli PM balked, succumbing to hardline settler demands.
Consequently, the Palestinian issue may well shift from an international conundrum to an internal Israeli quandary, as the reality of continued Israeli control in the West Bank prompts Palestinian demands for equality and citizenship.
In essence, while the Trump-Kushner peace plan may not have bridged Israeli-Palestinian divides, its real legacy lies in laying bare the impasse, ensuring that history remembers not for what it achieved, but for what it revealed.