Wondering who’s destined for the Champions League semifinals? Opta’s supercomputer has the scoop
As per The Analyst, brace yourselves for Real Madrid and Barcelona exiting the tournament against City and PSG.
We’re delving into one of the most riveting weeks of the 2023-24 Champions League. A colossal quarter-final looms ahead, featuring another showdown between Guardiola’s City and Madrid, Luis Enrique and Mbappe’s PSG taking on Xavi’s Barcelona, an unstoppable Atletico facing Dortmund at home, and Arteta’s Arsenal squaring off against Bayern.
Per usual, The Analyst unveils predictions for these four high-stakes matchups and the tournament’s remainder.
But how does the Opta supercomputer operate?
This statistical marvel harnesses odds from the betting market and Opta Power Rankings, which hinge on teams’ historical and recent performances.
The computer meticulously simulates matches thousands of times, scrutinizing each team’s likelihood of triumph to craft its final prediction.
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid
According to the OPTA supercomputer, the most lopsided clash (though the margin is slim) is Manchester City vs. Real Madrid. City boasts a 60% chance of advancing to the semis, while Real Madrid trails with 40%.
These titans have crossed paths in four of the last five seasons. In 2020-2021, Guardiola’s squad ousted Zidane’s in the round of 16. Then, in the 2021-2022 season, they clashed in the semis, witnessing a miraculous comeback by Los Blancos.
Last season, fate paired them again in the semis, with the Sky Blues clinching victory with a resounding 4-0 triumph in Manchester.
Bayern vs. Arsenal
In Tuesday’s other bout, the supercomputer detects the contrasting forms of Bayern and Arsenal. Initially, the Germans were slated as favorites against the English side, having bested them in all four prior Champions League encounters.
However, the tides have turned. Arsenal, reigning Premier League leaders, hold a 58.5% chance of reclaiming a semi-final spot 15 years later (their last appearance was in 2009). Bayern, with a 41.5% chance, vie for the only title within their grasp this season.
Barcelona vs. PSG
In Wednesday’s knockout showdowns, predictions are even tighter. According to OPTA, PSG emerges as a 57% favorite, leaving Barcelona with a 43% chance. These two powerhouses boast a storied rivalry, fueled by their recent meetings.
Of their five knockout clashes, Barcelona triumphed in three, with PSG seizing victory twice (including their most recent encounter in 2021). The unforgettable 6-1 comeback in 2017, with Luis Enrique at the helm, remains etched in memory.
The supercomputer deems the Atletico vs. Dortmund matchup the most evenly matched. The Germans hold a slight edge with a 56.3% chance, while the Colchoneros trail with a 43.7% probability of reaching the semis.
A pivotal factor in this forecast lies in Dortmund hosting the second leg at their stadium. Simeone’s squad proves formidable at the Metropolitano, as evidenced by their triumph over Inter Milan. Yet, the ultimate showdown unfolds at the Signal Iduna Park, one of Europe’s fieriest arenas.
City Favored for Glory
The model also predicts hypothetical semi-final and final matchups. According to this projection, Manchester City leads the pack with a 28.3% chance of lifting the trophy once more. Real Madrid and PSG follow closely. Bayern and Atletico Madrid trail with 6.2% and 5% probabilities, respectively.